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COVID-19
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Vince
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Joined: May 25, 2005
Posts: 14724
Location: Brisbane AUSTRALIA

PostPosted: Sat Mar 14, 2020 3:15 pm    Post subject: COVID-19 Reply with quote

A serious subject...how is everyone going at the moment? Have any of our members or their family members been diagnosed as positive for the virus? How much of an impact has this global pandemic had on our members?

I think this virus is going to get worse, much worse, before it gets better and starts to subside, so we all need to be very careful and mindful of the ease of the spread of the infection. I know it doesn’t sit well with many, and means total and blind acceptance of the rules put in place by the Govt to try to stem the spread of the virus, but I think drastic steps need to be taken.

Luckily these days we can shop online, with the items being delivered to your front door (meaning no face to face contact)...but it may well be only a matter of time before even this becomes unavailable.

Look after your family, especially the aged and infirm, and any that have weakened immune systems through illness. Take whatever steps are necessary to avoid infection and maintain your strength and health.

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Illegitimi non carborundum
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Live simply. Love generously. Care deeply. Speak kindly. Leave the rest to God.

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Vince
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PostPosted: Sat Mar 14, 2020 3:18 pm    Post subject: Re: CONVID-19 Reply with quote

Food for thought...

Control of the Masses

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Cheers, Vince Cheers

Illegitimi non carborundum
(Never let the bastards grind you down)

Live simply. Love generously. Care deeply. Speak kindly. Leave the rest to God.

"Nulla Si Fa Senza Volonta."
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slimjim
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Joined: May 16, 2009
Posts: 8103
Location: Fort Worth TX

PostPosted: Sat Mar 14, 2020 7:12 pm    Post subject: Re: CONVID-19 Reply with quote

I just returned from my 90 year-old parents house in AR. I've convinced them that they need to lock-down in their home for 30 days and not to interface with anyone including local family members. I went out and bought $XXX of food and supplies for them. The stores were packed and several gas stations ran out of gas. Lucky to get one bulk package of TP.

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"The world is a dangerous place to live; not because of the people who are evil, but because of the people who don't do anything about it." - Albert Einstein
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English Mike
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Joined: Jan 08, 2007
Posts: 1627
Location: Whitehaven, Cumbria, UK

PostPosted: Sat Mar 14, 2020 9:21 pm    Post subject: Re: CONVID-19 Reply with quote

Current recorded infection rate here in the UK is 17 per million, so somewhat significantly less than syphilis or AIDS.

Having said that, I'm using alcohol based wipes on shopping trolley handles, only shopping once a week & late night to avoid people & washing my hands more often than Pontius Pilate.

Mum is 90 & has both heart & lung issues which make her super vulnerable to this virus, so she's staying home & with her & her doctor's agreement, we've postponed any routine medical appointments for at least 3 months (which is about how long my food supply would last if things go wahoonie shaped...)

I've 8lb of various propellants & 1,000 large rifle primers arriving Tuesday...
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PaulS
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Joined: Feb 18, 2006
Posts: 4172
Location: South-Eastern Washington - the State

PostPosted: Sun Mar 15, 2020 12:03 am    Post subject: Re: CONVID-19 Reply with quote

Sounds like a good start Mike.
I have enough primers, bullets and powder to keep me reloading for a long while but I also have loaded ammo for all my guns. The one gun that I have the least amount of brass for is my 40 and a friend is sending me enough brass to round out that in the next week.
Have fun loading your ammo - I am!

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Gil Martin
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Joined: Jan 28, 2005
Posts: 1800
Location: Schnecksville, PA

PostPosted: Sun Mar 15, 2020 2:56 am    Post subject: Re: COVID-19 Reply with quote

It depends. It is important to keep things in perspective and not panic. After spending thirty-five years working in healthcare and twenty years in Emergency Management, I do not believe the data support the extreme measures that some folks are taking. It reminds me of the Y2K hysteria we experienced two decades ago. Be careful, be aware and be smart. As FDR said during WWII, ..."the only thing we have to fear is fear itself. " Take care. All the best...
Gil

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slimjim
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Joined: May 16, 2009
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Location: Fort Worth TX

PostPosted: Sun Mar 15, 2020 9:13 am    Post subject: Re: CONVID-19 Reply with quote

Here is a link to an analysis that is the most complete I have seen. It takes 30 minutes to read through it but was worth it for me and help me comprehend the gravity of our situation.

medium.com/@tomaspueyo...d3d9cd99ca

The two big take-aways were from his analysis of China and Italy were:
- it has been an average of 12 days from the time symptoms start until a person is tested positive.
- 10% of the people infected need ICU and, a smaller percentage, respirators
- the only defense against this threat is to contain its spread.

Italy did not contain and the infection went exponential. They did not have enough ICU beds or respirators. For the seriously ill who had had cancer or diabetes, they were not put on respiration as the limited respirators they had were used on individuals that had a better chance of survival. This is why the fatality rate has been so high in Italy.

Yesterday, I skyped with my son who is in command of an army unit in Europe. They are locking down. He was briefed that the virus lives in the back of the throat for 5 days before symptoms present themselves. During this time they are contagious. This means that the number of real cases in our country is significantly higher that actually known.

The steps we are taking in the US are important because they will help limit the spread of infection so that the capacity of our hospitals will not be exceeded.

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"To anger a conservative, lie to him. To anger a liberal, tell him the truth." - Theodore Roosevelt

"The world is a dangerous place to live; not because of the people who are evil, but because of the people who don't do anything about it." - Albert Einstein
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Gil Martin
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Location: Schnecksville, PA

PostPosted: Sun Mar 15, 2020 9:38 am    Post subject: Be aware, but... Reply with quote

I was in a grocery store with my significant other getting a few items. The customer in line ahead of us was freaking out because she could not get 15 cases of bottled water. The customer in front of her was mad because she could not get 17 dozen eggs. This shows how a panic brings out the best and the worst in people. All the best...
Gil

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Bushmaster
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Joined: Jun 12, 2005
Posts: 11043
Location: Ava, Missouri

PostPosted: Sun Mar 15, 2020 1:52 pm    Post subject: Re: CONVID-19 Reply with quote

Vince...Again I'm skeptical. Who's to say he didn't author all that [crap] paper himself. In a way he seems to be a bit paranoid and the extremist end of the right wing groups.

You must consider that in this country (and you've seen it when you were here that it might be a bit difficult for any of that to happen without "we, the people" deciding that it's time to "fertilize the tree of Freedom" (I believe that Thomas Jefferson said that).

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DEMOCRACY Two wolves and one sheep voting on what to have for lunch...
LIBERTY A well armed sheep contesting the outcome of the vote...
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slimjim
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PostPosted: Sun Mar 15, 2020 2:21 pm    Post subject: Re: CONVID-19 Reply with quote

Gil, in AR, everyone we pleasant, courteous, and even helpful in the stores. But you are right that some panic.

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"To anger a conservative, lie to him. To anger a liberal, tell him the truth." - Theodore Roosevelt

"The world is a dangerous place to live; not because of the people who are evil, but because of the people who don't do anything about it." - Albert Einstein
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gelandangan
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Joined: May 07, 2006
Posts: 6133
Location: Sydney Australia

PostPosted: Sun Mar 15, 2020 2:39 pm    Post subject: Re: CONVID-19 Reply with quote

At a great economical cost, China has isolated its infection in the past few months, but with the disease now spread out of China to "Free" and "Developed" country, the chance of it isolating is now slim.
In "Free" countries the power of the government to isolate cases is a lot smaller and also the financial strength of most governments cannot sustain forced isolation.

Over in Wuhan, according to my colleagues that were caught there, deliveries of essential supplies such as food, hygiene products, and other necessities are done weekly to every household with no charge to the population. With this assistant, they could theoretically stay indefinitely in isolation without having to actually go out and obtain the items, thus well and truly in perfect isolation to cut down the person to person infection.
I cannot think of any other country with a government that have enough surplus to feed the whole state for the period of isolation.

Grim days ahead of us.

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Loke
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Joined: May 13, 2013
Posts: 167

PostPosted: Sun Mar 15, 2020 5:53 pm    Post subject: Re: CONVID-19 Reply with quote

According to the data that I have read, 80% of those infected show no signs, or very mild symptoms. So how many of them get tested. So my guess is that it has been around a lot longer and is more widespread than reported.
As an example, a coworker's son works with a guy that went to China to get married in December for two or three weeks. After he got home, everyone in the shop got sick. Two weeks later, all their families were sick. You know, low grade fever, cough, etc. a couple of weeks later I thought I was getting the flu so I went to the instacare. They swabbed my throat, checked for a fever (low grade fever, not high enough to be flu), and sent me home saying, "you just have a cold, go to work and whatever". That was February 24th.
I'll let you decide if I've already had it.

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PaulS
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Joined: Feb 18, 2006
Posts: 4172
Location: South-Eastern Washington - the State

PostPosted: Sun Mar 15, 2020 10:34 pm    Post subject: Re: CONVID-19 Reply with quote

Gil,
Right now panic is taking over in the big cities and the smaller cities are following suit.
The health department notice said to use common sense and to leave enough in the grocery stores for your neighbors. There are still no confirmed cases in the Walla Walla county but we are getting folks from Oregon that are being held in hospital isolation until their results come back. Out of 7 people 4 have been released - 3 to go.
60,000,000 people is about 1% of the total population so if everyone gets it that is about the limit of deaths world wide. That is less than the number of votes for either of the two big candidates in 2016. It's a lot of people but compared to the number of folks this world is supporting it is just a drop in the bucket.

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Paul
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dhc4ever
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Joined: May 26, 2011
Posts: 2694
Location: Ipswich, Queensland Australia

PostPosted: Mon Mar 16, 2020 5:36 am    Post subject: Re: CONVID-19 Reply with quote

The panic and the effects they cause are going to be worse than the disease.
The young, that being birth through to 39 yo, current death rate . 2%
40 to 49 .4%
50 to 59 1.7%
60 to 69 3.4%
70 to 79 8%
80 and up 15%
This morning Australia had had 5 deaths, 3 of those in aged care facilitates one of those was in her 90s another late 70s I dont recall the other as i turned the media hysteria off at that stage.
So the old, those that are immune depressed, those that have chronic illnesses are going to be affected if they catch it.
Australia currently has less than 600 confirmed cases out of a population of 26 million,
pardon me if I dont run around in panic screaming or emptying supermarket shelves.
The media need to be strung up.
This will get worse before it gets better, there will be another world wide recession and in about a year imo well have a prototype vaccine of some sort.
Look after your health, if in an olderbage group with illnesses stay home, tell the kids and grand kids to piss off for the next month or so, learn to order home delivery for groceries from the local markets if you have those.
Wash your hands .

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gelandangan
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Location: Sydney Australia

PostPosted: Mon Mar 16, 2020 4:22 pm    Post subject: Re: CONVID-19 Reply with quote

I have a good number of friends that are over 70 years old.
They came over to my workshop usually for repairs of small stuff machines and whatnots, either I help them repair the machines or they use my machinery and tools to do the job themselves.
I spent this morning ringing them all telling them not to come by the warehouse because my wife is currently working at the airport and I might be a carrier although I am currently in good health.
It is sad to have to tell them that since our time together are very short, but that is life I guess.

The strange thing is that the govt and GP are telling you to go to the hospital if you have symptom of flu, but IMHO hospital is the last place you want to visit nowadays. So It does baffle me what to do.

There is a talk that chloroquine can kill the virus, but that is currently on testing stage, however it is not a bad thing to have some on hand just in case.
After all, malaria is a virus and the quinine actually stop them from multiplying, and I do not think there are any harm in trying them if you got the virus.

You old farts, please take care of yourselves

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The government I trust .. is my .45-70 Government.

Do - Not try!


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